Objective probabilities and subjective risks
https://doi.org/10.25205/2541-7517-2024-22-1-5-15
Abstract
The article shows, using elementary examples, that risk assessment depends both on the probability of future events and on their results. Various approaches to the integration of probabilities and numerical estimates of possible outcomes are shown and analyzed. The subjective nature of risk is substantiated. An interdisciplinary definition of risk is proposed, not associated with any science or group of sciences. The definition is based on the idea that risk is a consequence of decisions made by the subject, who evaluates their consequences. The question is raised about responsibility for decisions under risk conditions.
Keywords
randomness,
probability,
uncertainty,
risk,
utility,
preferences,
decision,
values,
rationality,
responsibility
About the Author
V. S. Diev
Novosibirsk State University; Institute of Philosophy and Law, SB RAS
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Vladimir S. Diev - Doctor of Sciences (Philosophy), Professor Director of the Institute for the Philosophy and Law, Novosibirsk SU; Leading Researcher, Institute of Philosophy and Law, SB RAS.
Novosibirsk
References
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Review
For citations:
Diev V.S. Objective probabilities and subjective risks. Siberian Journal of Philosophy. 2024;22(1):5-15. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.25205/2541-7517-2024-22-1-5-15
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